Predictions are those statements made about future events that include specific details as to when, what, who, and so forth. Examples abound – where the Dow Jones will finish in 2011, whether the Eurozone can survive the year intact, whether gold will fall to $800 or rise to $2,000, $5,000 or whatever, who will win the Super Bowl, whether Barack Obama will choose to run for a second term or not, whether John and Mary’s marriage is going to end in divorce, the list is nearly endless. I don’t give much weight to the specifics, but will read the author’s reasoning if the subject interests me. However, I see predictions as guesswork and of limited use, if any.
I prefer forecasts which look at two or more potential future general scenarios, each with a different outcome, and which attempt to guess which general scenario is most likely, but never suggesting that that scenario is certain and always recognizing that future events that cannot be known now may change the forecast radically. It is the difference between saying, for example, “Gold will reach $3,000 an ounce by December 31st of 2011″ and “Gold will likely continue to increase in value in 2011, barring an unforeseen event”.
Predictions are much more popular than forecasts with most folks. I think in part this is because we humans find an unpredictable future frightening and want to believe that there is someone or some “system” or some chart from the past that can accurately predict the future. I don’t believe it. I accept that I, you, and everyone else in our species are imperfect humans, incapable of predicting the future with any accuracy. We can get lucky and, when we do, we may prefer to believe that we have unique and brilliant foresight. I call it luck.
ReplyDeleteAnd in part, I think predictions are more fun. They keep the idle busy with something to argue about for a few days, maybe even a few weeks, before the old predictions are forgotten and new ones have sprung up to take their place, providing more grist for the yadda-yadda mill. Given that attitude, you can understand why I do not claim to be able to make a specific prediction of the future, but focus on forecasts that are open to modifications, even reversal, as the future unfolds.
In other words, the future is a moving target that we hit squarely only when we get lucky. The best we can hope for is to make a forecast broad enough that it includes whatever actually happens. I have read a few of those in the past and am always amused later to hear the forecaster insist that he or she “predicted” the specific outcome when in fact they only had made a general forecast.
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I have worked in more than 40, probably 50 (who counts anymore?), nations as a consultant to UN agencies, the US foreign aid program, various non-profit humanitarian agencies, and for-profit businesses.
I have been published in Barron’s, the Christian Science Monitor, Minyanville, the Asia Times Online, and others. I have been interviewed on CNBC, Reuters television, Australian television, and various radio stations. I have been interviewed by journalists from the New York Times, Associated Press, USA Today, US News & World Report, the BBC, Singapore’s Straits Times, Fox Business News and a host of others. I have run blogs in the past, but never one that was strictly personal. This is that one.
I am President and CEO of two companies, one in the US and one in Panama where I currently reside. But this is a personal blog, so I will leave it at that.
I am 65 years old, live in Panama City, Panama very happily, and am in training as a curmudgeon. I like rum.