In 1964, Gordon E. Moore, research manager of Fairchild Semiconductor, observed a regular periodic doubling of the number of gates" (a measure of complexity), and claimed, by extrapolation, that this would continue. This prediction has come true so beautifully, that nowadays we speak of "Moore's Law," as if it were a law of Nature. The validity of this law cannot be understood from the technical procedures by which the chips are made. The fact that the law holds so well is an effect of the way actors (in industry, in science and in government) judge their own and each others' accomplishments with respect to Moore's Law predicts. They direct their efforts towards achieving the predicted values. Laboratories evaluate and plan their efforts in terms of Moore's Law; when there is danger of specifications falling short at the predicted moment, extra effort is expended. Firms use the law to guide investment decisions in specific technologies; for example whether or not to develop products that need chips with the predicted capacity - such as calculators or compact disc players. Governments are willing to provide subsidies in order to help firms avert the danger of not meeting the predicted value. All actors exert themselves to measure up to the predicted competition and to stay in the race. Moore's Law is the yardstick for the behavior of chip producers and governments in Japan, the United States and Europe, and it shapes their mutual dependency in the strategic game they play with one another.
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