Bengt Svensson

Reasons		Type	Instruments
Political Instability Economic Ethical Migration	Border   disputes Ideological Religious Will to expand Environmental	Intrastate Interstate Aggressive   major power	Diplomatic Economic Informational Militaty

All the listed reasons for conflict exist in Europe today, but ideology and the will to expand are less prevalent. Instead, four major reasons for conflict are likely to dominate during the next decade. First, there is the possibility of the resurfacing of ethnic and religious conflicts, combined with weak states to deal with the problems. Second, there is the potential for general political instability during transition from a totalitarian to a democratic state. Third, social tension can boil over, following a shift to a market economy and the emergence of large economic differences between countries. Fourth, there is the potential for environmental hazards, due to lack of resources and differing priorities for protection of the environment.
All kinds of conflicts are possible, but intrastate are more likely. The risk for conflicts between states exists as long as nation states remain. The security structure in Europe and economic dependence reduce the risk. The multitudes of internal problems in Eastern Europe increases the risk for intrastate conflicts. The only possible aggressive major power in Europe is Russia.
War, as an instrument to solve conflict, is not obsolete in Europe. Wars in former Yugoslavia and in Chechnya indicate this. The example of Yugoslavia also shows that it is possible to destroy a state in Europe.178 It is important not to confuse the reason for a conflict with the methods to solve it.