The world’s population is increasing faster than it has ever done in human history. It took 250,000 years to reach 1 billion, more than a century after that to reach 2 billion (in 1927) and 33 years more to reach 3 billion. By 2050, the world will have over 9 billion people in it and the number will still be rising.
The growth in certain countries has been and will continue to be astounding. Nigeria in 1970 had 57m people. By 2050, unless its fertility rate falls unexpectedly fast, it will have 389m – almost the population of the United States then. Tanzania is growing faster still, from 14m in 1970 to 139m in 2050. By 2100, they will be the third- and fifth-most-populous places on Earth.
Conversely, some national populations that are now among the world’s largest will have hit their peak and be in decline. Russia’s numbers have been falling since 1995. Japan’s peaked at 126m in 2010. China’s will peak at 1.4 billion in 2025, declining thereafter. Even India’s population – the largest in the world in 2050 – is nearer its maximum size than most people realise: its peak, when it reaches 1.7 billion, will occur around 2060, declining thereafter.
The big losers from the demographic patterns of 2010–50 will be Europe, Japan – and China. The share of the old-age population in Japan has long been the biggest in the world and it is getting bigger. Japan’s dependency rate will deteriorate by a staggering 40 points in 2010–50. By 2050 the country will have almost as many dependants as working-age adults. No society has seen such a thing before. Japan will then be the oldest society ever known, with a median age of 52.3 (ie, half the population will be aged over 52). Europe’s dependency will not rise as far but it will still be the next highest (and there will be little difference between western and eastern Europe).
ReplyDeleteThe Economist
ReplyDeleteMEGACHANGE
The world in 2050
Edited by Daniel Franklin with John Andrews
http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/store/megachange.pdf