China has a “deeply ingrained” need to spar with Japan and other Asian neighbors over territory, because the ruling Communist Party uses the disputes to maintain strong domestic support, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in an interview.
Clashes with neighbors, notably Japan, play to popular opinion, Abe said, given a Chinese education system that emphasizes patriotism and “anti-Japanese sentiment.”
Abe’s theory on the entrenched motivation behind China’s recent naval aggression helps explain why he has spent more effort trying to counter the Chinese than make peace with them: He thinks the fierce dispute with China over an island chain in the East China Sea isn’t going away anytime soon.
Abe spoke about China in what aides described as unusually detailed terms, laying out challenges that Chinese leaders might face if other Asian countries, unnerved by Beijing’s maritime expansionism, decide to reduce trade and other economic ties. China’s government would be hurt by such moves, Abe said, because without economic growth, it “will not be able to control the 1.3 billion people . . . under the one-party rule.”
Abe also laid out his plans for deterrence, which include boosting military spending and strengthening ties with Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and other nations that share concerns about Beijing. Abe said the U.S. presence in Asia is “critical” to deter China from taking territory controlled by other countries.
His comments came in an interview Saturday with The Washington Post, which The Post was granted on the condition that the article not be published until Abe was departing for Washington.
Abe’s assessment of China sounds like a version of the one that experts in Beijing give of Japan, which they say has shifted to the right on foreign policy and security issues in a bid to recover clout and pride lost during two decades of economic stagnation. Abe’s criticism of Chinese education is also notable because, during his first stint as prime minister six years ago, he revised a law to encourage a more patriotic curriculum in Japan’s classrooms.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: Chinese need for conflict is ‘deeply ingrained’
ReplyDeleteby Chico Harlan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japans-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-chinese-need-for-conflict-is-deeply-ingrained/2013/02/20/48adbc80-7a87-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_story.html
TOKYO — China has a “deeply ingrained” need to spar with Japan and other Asian neighbors over territory, because the ruling Communist Party uses the disputes to maintain strong domestic support, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in an interview.
Clashes with neighbors, notably Japan, play to popular opinion, Abe said, given a Chinese education system that emphasizes patriotism and “anti-Japanese sentiment.”
Abe’s theory on the entrenched motivation behind China’s recent naval aggression helps explain why he has spent more effort trying to counter the Chinese than make peace with them: He thinks the fierce dispute with China over an island chain in the East China Sea isn’t going away anytime soon.
Abe spoke about China in what aides described as unusually detailed terms, laying out challenges that Chinese leaders might face if other Asian countries, unnerved by Beijing’s maritime expansionism, decide to reduce trade and other economic ties. China’s government would be hurt by such moves, Abe said, because without economic growth, it “will not be able to control the 1.3 billion people . . . under the one-party rule.”
Abe also laid out his plans for deterrence, which include boosting military spending and strengthening ties with Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and other nations that share concerns about Beijing. Abe, who is to meet Friday with President Obama in Washington, said the U.S. presence in Asia is “critical” to deter China from taking territory controlled by other countries.
His comments came in an interview Saturday with The Washington Post, which The Post was granted on the condition that the article not be published until Abe was departing for Washington.
In recent years, China has played an increasingly boisterous role in the South China Sea, claiming a massive sphere of territory that includes some of the world’s most trafficked shipping lanes and overlaps with claims of a half-dozen other countries. For Japan, the dispute with China focuses on a chain of remote islands in the East China Sea known to Japanese as the Senkaku and to Chinese as the Diaoyu, several of which Japan’s central government purchased in September after previously renting.
“What is important first and foremost,” Abe said, “is to make [China] realize that they would not be able to change the rules or take away somebody’s territorial water or territory by coercion or intimidation.”
Abe’s assessment of China sounds like a version of the one that experts in Beijing give of Japan, which they say has shifted to the right on foreign policy and security issues in a bid to recover clout and pride lost during two decades of economic stagnation. Abe’s criticism of Chinese education is also notable because, during his first stint as prime minister six years ago, he revised a law to encourage a more patriotic curriculum in Japan’s classrooms.
Pragmatic and popular
ReplyDeleteAbe became prime minister for a second time in December, after making a string of far-right campaign pledges to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution and loosen certain restrictions on the armed forces. He also promised to be tougher on China than the previous government, the deeply unpopular and moderate Democratic Party of Japan, which was booted from office.
But two months into his term, Abe looks more like a pragmatist than a strident nationalist, focusing mainly on a new, and so far successful, economic policy to weaken the yen and spur inflation. His latest popularity rating is 71 percent, according to the Yomiuri newspaper, a stunning mark in a nation that has cycled through six consecutive one-year leaders.
“I have succeeded already in changing the general mood and atmosphere that was prevalent in Japan,” Abe said.
The question is whether Abe will change course and begin pushing for his controversial right-wing hobbyhorses after July parliamentary elections that could help his Liberal Democratic Party build an overwhelming majority and leave Abe emboldened. One concern is that Abe could revise earlier government apologies for atrocities committed by Japan’s World War II-era military. Abe, in the interview, said he would someday like to make a “future-oriented” statement aimed at Japan’s neighbors, but he did not elaborate on what its message would be.
Beijing has responded to Japan’s nationalization of the Senkaku Islands by sending surveillance ships and aircraft into Japanese territory, drawing Japan into a risky showdown in which the neighbors chase each other around the waters and airspace of uninhabited rocky outcroppings. Any armed conflict could draw in the United States, which is treaty-bound to protect Japan.
The 35-year shift
ReplyDeleteWhile historical animosities are at the root of Japan’s territorial dispute with China, the maritime conflict is relatively new. During the interview, Abe portrayed China’s actions as part of a 35-year shift that began when the Communist Party opened its once-controlled economy. China’s government has since had to abandon the hope of nationwide economic equality — “one of its pillars of legitimacy,” Abe said — forcing it to create “some different pillars,” including rapid economic growth and patriotism.
“What is unfortunate, however,” Abe added, “is that in the case of China, teaching patriotism [is equivalent to] teaching anti-Japanese sentiment. In other words, their education policy of teaching patriotism has become even more pronounced as they started the reform and opening policy.”
Abe said China’s tactics at sea are yielding “strong support” domestically. Those tactics, some analysts say, also could prove financially lucrative if China gains control of shipping lanes and access to rich fishing territory, and extracts hydrocarbon reserves.
But Abe warned that China’s sparring with its neighbors could backfire, potentially undermining trade partnerships and causing skittishness among foreign investors.
“Such behavior is going to have an effect on their economic activity at the end of the day,” he said, “because it will lead to losing the confidence of the international community, which will result in less investments in China. I believe it is fully possible to have China to change their policy once they gain that recognition.”
Yuki Oda contributed to this report.
米紙「中国、領土紛争起こす必要性ある」…首相発言“曲解” 外務省が注意
ReplyDelete産経新聞
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/world/news/130223/amr13022308560002-n1.htm
外務省は２２日、米紙ワシントン・ポストが安倍晋三首相に行った単独インタビュー記事について「発言を正確に引用しておらず誤解を招きかねない」として、執筆したハーラン東アジア総局長に注意喚起した。
記事は２１日付で、首相が、中国には周辺諸国と領土紛争を起こす「根深い必要性がある。共産党が国内の支持を得るためだ」と述べたとしている。実際の発言は「力による行動が国民の支持にもつながっている。問題の根深さを認識することが大切だ」だった。
中国では、一部メディアが記事を引用し、首相が「中国が日中衝突を求めている」と発言したと報道。外務省報道官が「公然と隣国を歪曲（わいきょく）して攻撃した」と反発していた。菅義偉官房長官は２２日、中国側にも正確に報道するよう申し入れたことを明らかにした。ハーラン氏は２２日、産経新聞に「安倍氏の論理を正確に表現した」と答えた。
Transcript of interview with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-of-interview-with-japanese-prime-minister-shinzo-abe/2013/02/20/e7518d54-7b1c-11e2-82e8-61a46c2cde3d_story.html
Translated by The Washington Post.
Prime Minister Abe: I would like to thank the two of you for coming all the way to Tokyo. In this building, it used to be used previously as the prime minister’s office, and I wanted to welcome you here to this building for this interview today.
Next week, I will be visiting the United States and a meeting with President Obama is scheduled for [February] 22nd. On the 26th of December of last year, I took office for my second term as prime minister. And it is the first time ever since then-Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida, during the occupation period, that a prime minister is taking this position for the second time with a number of years in between. In Japan, usually, once you become prime minister, you do not have a second chance. Probably the reason why that was not the case this time is because Japan is facing an increasingly challenging situation.
In particular, it’s the sluggish economy that we are facing, and also the fact that Fukushima and the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake are having a hard time in their reconstruction efforts. Also, as a result of the trust and confidence between Japan and the United States having gone through a pretty rocky period, Japan’s foreign policy clout has been declining. And the stability in Japan’s adjacent waters and in the Asia-Pacific region is being affected, with acts of provocation seen against Japan’s territory and territorial waters.
And also, the sluggish economy is creating a situation where the young people in Japan cannot cherish their desires or have prospects for their future. Also, the decline in Japan’s economic capability is resulting in a declining presence for Japan’s foreign policy as well.
Accordingly, the duties and mission that I must fulfill are pretty clear: namely, to regain a strong and robust economy, and also to restore Japan’s strong foreign policy capability.
Now, regarding the economy, I believe I have succeeded already in changing the general mood and atmosphere that was prevalent in Japan. Also, in my foreign policy agenda, I have recently visited Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, and regained the trust with Asian nations. Also, next week, I will be visiting the United States, and after a successful meeting with President Obama, I wish to demonstrate to the people in Japan, as well as overseas, that we have been able to fully restore the strong bonds and friendship between Japan and the United States under the Japan-U.S. alliance.
While we reinforce the relations with countries that share the values such as freedom, democracy, basic human rights and rule of law and expand the outer border of this “value-oriented diplomacy,” I’d like to look at the entire world with a bird’s-eye view and develop a foreign policy that can contribute to this region, as well as the world, for the Japanese economy and from a geopolitical perspective.
Question: What will it take to make your visit successful? Are their specific accomplishments you’re hoping to achieve in Washington?
ReplyDeleteAbe: Specifically, first of all, in relation to the nuclear test that has been undertaken by North Korea recently and the attempt being made by North Korea to strengthen its nuclear capability, as well as to increase its capability for missiles as a means of delivery, I wish to discuss with President Obama how we might be able to check and stop these developments, and also how we might be able to change North Korea’s policy.
In that regard, I wish to be able to make the meeting between myself and President Obama in itself a message that we can send. At the same time, I wish to make the point that in the context of the enormously changing security environment in the Asia-Pacific, I wish to mention that strengthening and reinforcing the alliance between Japan and the United States will be able to contribute to peace and stability in the region.
Regarding trade, I believe that a free trading environment would be in the national interest of Japan. I believe that we need to capture and incorporate the growth potential that we have in the Asia-Pacific region for the growth of Japan going forward. Accordingly, I also wish to discuss the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] with President Obama.
Q: What are you hoping to hear from him that would allow Japan to enter those talks, and what do you think is the earliest that you would be able to enter the talks if you do?
Abe: In my meeting with President Obama, I would say one very important point would be whether I can be convinced on whether or not Japan’s participation in the TPP will have a positive effect on the national interests of Japan. The TPP is expected to have considerable effects in various different areas in Japan, so from that perspective, after my meeting with President Obama I intend to analyze the various effects that may be expected, and also analyze the prior consultations once again. Based upon these results, I’ll decide whether or not to participate at an appropriate time. Therefore, I would say my meeting with President Obama will be important in making that decision.
Q: So participation could come before the summer election?
Abe: I am not able to say anything definite regarding the timing at the moment, but what I can say is that I have no intention of making the upper house elections a central element in my consideration of whether or not to join the TPP. I say so because the timing of the elections is something that has a bearing on the interests of the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party] as a political party. But the decision on whether or not to join TPP negotiations is a matter that would have a bearing on Japan’s national interests. So I intend to make a decision based on consideration of Japan’s national interests, meaning that I wish to make the decision without considering the angle of the elections.
Q: You mentioned that not many prime ministers get a second chance. How are you different this time, and how do you think you’ve done so far in these couple of months?
ReplyDeleteAbe: During the election that just ended, and also at the time of elections for president of the LDP, the issue of the economy was one of the main topics. In that process, I advocated for a monetary policy that was somewhat different than the policy held by those in the mainstream in the Bank of Japan and in monetary policy. That has probably gained the support of those who felt we needed to do something to change the current situation. So that may have led me to be elected for the second time as president of the LDP.
Also, regarding the security environment, for instance, we were having many cases of violations made by Chinese government vessels in territorial waters of Japan, and also we were experiencing many cases where there have been intrusions into Japan’s air defense identification zone and territorial airspace. I believe, therefore, that that has attracted support for my very strong position that we should make sure to defend the Japanese territory, territorial waters and airspace with strong determination. And also, at the same time, my past track record with having made improvements in the relationship with Japan and China may have also been a factor in being reelected. It was in the first Abe administration that we started the mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests between Japan and China. And I believe all these elements together have culminated in support for me during the elections.
Q: But if I could just follow up, did you learn something from the first term, and are you different now than you were in 2006-07?
Abe: I did learn from many mistakes. First and foremost, I learned that it is important to create a wide base of support within the LDP. In forming the cabinet this time, I included almost all the members of the LDP whom I ran against during the party election for president.
Also, as a result of the lessons I learned, this time my policy priorities have become very clear. This would include first and foremost restoring a robust economy. I believe this has resulted in the strong support that I am getting from the people.
Q: A number of people comment on your strong focus on the economy but also say that in your heart, the issues of history — and how Japan is perceived historically — is very important to you, so that eventually during your prime ministership those issues are bound to come out. I wonder if you could comment on that.
Abe: Regarding what happened in the past, much like my predecessors, I believe that we caused tremendous damage and suffering to the countries of Asia. That is why Japan has been providing support and assistance to the countries of Asia even from the days when Japan was still a poor country. And I believe that the path Japan has taken has been the correct path. In the postwar years, we have attached great importance to pursuing the principles of freedom, democracy, basic human rights and the rule of law. I believe that was also a correct path. That is why, as I said previously, we have been making a great effort to further promote these values.
My basic notion regarding the matter of historical recognition is basically, it’s a matter that should be left to the good hands of historians and experts. And this is a position that I have been taking consistently ever since the first Abe government. This is a point that I have been making consistently ever since my first term in office, as well as in Diet deliberations and interviews.
Q: So, if you’re going to leave it to historians, does that mean you will let the statements of 1993 and 1995 stand as is? Or should there ultimately be a review of them?
ReplyDeleteAbe: The Murayama Statement [in 1995] was issued on the 50th anniversary of the war end, and also on the 60th anniversary after World War II, Prime Minister Koizumi also issued a statement. I wish to issue a statement at an appropriate time, but as I mentioned earlier, it is my belief that politicians should not be stepping into the realm of history. Rather, politicians should be taking a future-oriented perspective, and that is the perspective from which I intend to issue a statement at the appropriate time.
Q: What does that mean, “future-oriented?”
Abe: I mean to say that Japan should speak about the role Japan should be playing in our relations with Asia.
Q: What is their larger purpose, do you think? What is China trying to achieve with what it is doing in the Senkaku Islands?
Abe: China, as a nation, is a country under the one-party rule of the Communist Party, but it has introduced the market economy. As a country that is under the one-party rule of the Communist Party, normally what they should be seeking is equality of results. And I believe it is fair to say that is probably what constitutes the legitimacy of one-party rule by the Communist Party. But as a result of introducing the market economy, China, has dropped one of its pillars of legitimacy, which was equal results for all.
This has led them to require some different pillars — one of which is high economic growth, and another of which is patriotism.
As part of their effort to seek natural resources needed for their high economic growth, I believe they are moving into the sea.
And the other pillar they are now seeking is teaching patriotism in their education. What is unfortunate, however, is that in the case of China, teaching patriotism is also teaching anti-Japanese sentiment. In other words, their education policy of teaching patriotism has become even more pronounced as they started the reform and opening policy.
In that process, in order to gain natural resources for their economy, China is taking action by coercion or intimidation, both in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. This is also resulting in strong support from the people of China, who have been brought up through this educational system that attaches emphasis on patriotism.
This, however, is also a dilemma faced by China. That is to say, the mood and atmosphere created by the education in China attaching importance on patriotism — which is in effect focusing on anti-Japanese sentiment — is in turn undermining their friendly relationship with Japan and having an adverse effect on its economic growth. And the Chinese government is well aware of this.
Q: Okay, so if you are going to follow this theory through, it means the problem in China is very ingrained. How does Japan counter that, and do you see any solution to the maritime issue, and more broadly, between Japan and China in their overall relationship?
ReplyDeleteAbe: What is important, first of all, is that their leaders as well as business leaders recognize how deeply ingrained this issue is. Because without having this recognition, they will not be able to find a solution that can produce results. In this context, I wish to make the point that without economic growth, they will not be able to control the 1.3 billion people in China under the one-party rule by the Communist Party.
What is important, first and foremost, is to make them realize that they would not be able to change the rules or take away somebody’s territorial water or territory by coercion or intimidation. Accordingly, for the first time in 11 years, I have increased our defense budget, as well as the budget for the Japan coast guard. It is important for us to have them recognize that it is impossible to try to get their way by coercion or intimidation. In that regard, the Japan-U.S. alliance, as well as the U.S. presence, would be critical.
I believe it will be important to establish rules for ensuring freedom of the sea, not only in the East China Sea, but also including the South China Sea.
Regarding the Senkaku Islands, which is under the valid control of Japan, we need to make them recognize that that current status of Japan’s valid control cannot be changed by coercion or intimidation. Such behavior is going to have an effect on their economic activity at the end of the day, because it will lead to losing the confidence of the international community which will result in less investments in China. I believe it is fully possible to have China to change their policy once they gain that recognition.
Now, while Japan is also gaining profit through our investments in China, China is also enjoying an increase in jobs of 10 million or so as a result of investments being made by Japan in China. Obviously when there is greater risk, Japan’s investment will start to drop sharply, and I believe it would be important for them to realize that.
Q: If I could just come back to next week one last time, I think the United States over the last years has been frustrated by the frequent change of leadership here. I wonder if you think this will mark a reset in relations, and will you be able to tell President Obama that you’ll be around longer than one year?
Abe: After I stepped down from my first term as prime minister, there have been two LDP administrations and also three DPJ administrations who eventually stepped down. In my case, I had no choice but to resign because of some health problems. This is a condition I used to have for quite some time back, but with the development of a spectacular new drug, I have been able to totally recover and improve my health. So, physically speaking, I should be able to continue in my current position for a considerable number of years.
Including myself, there have been six prime ministers that have stepped down after one year, and the tendency is seen that the approval rating that was high at the beginning starts to decline after about a month. Whereas this time, fortunately, approval ratings have been considerably increased for two months in a row, and some results show over 70 percent at the moment. So I would consider that it’s important to maintain such a high approval rating.
Of course, it will be very difficult to maintain the current approval rating, but I do not intend to be consumed with approval ratings or be taken over by them. But rather, I would say, it would be important to have a very stable management of policy, and in that regard I would say it would be very important to be successful in the upcoming upper house elections to take place this summer.
Japan sought Thursday to clarify comments about China that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made to The Washington Post this week, with a top government spokesman saying that quotations published by the newspaper were “misleading.”
ReplyDeleteThe Post had quoted Abe as saying that China’s Communist Party had a “deeply ingrained” need to spar with Japan and other Asian neighbors over territory, because the government uses such conflicts to win strong support from citizens whose education system emphasizes patriotism and “anti-Japanese sentiment.”
“There is no comment made by the prime minister as saying that China wants to clash or [have] collision with other countries,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said. “As I said, as the prime minister said, we value mutually beneficial relations with China based on strategic interests.”
Japan’s response came after China denounced Abe for the reported remarks.
“It is rare that a country’s leader brazenly distorts facts, attacks its neighbor and instigates antagonism between regional countries,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said. “Such behavior goes against the will of the international community. . . . We have solemnly demanded the Japanese side immediately clarify and explain.”
Abe met with President Obama on Friday at the White House, where they discussed Japan’s potential interest in joining the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Parternship free trade negotiations and the two countries’ ongoing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
“We agreed that we would cooperate so that a resolution, including sanctions, would be adopted in the U.N.,” Abe said, referring to punitive action against Pyongyang. “We also discussed additional sanctions — for example, financial sanctions.”
Abe did not commit to entering the TPP talks, but the two governments agreed that Japan will not have to make concessions on lowering tariffs for American exports prior to the negotiations taking place.
Obama said that the two leaders agreed “that our number-one priority has to be making sure that we are increasing growth.”
They also discussed the ongoing clash between Tokyo and Beijing over a remote chain of islands that both consider part of their territory. Tokyo administers the islands and purchased several of them from a private owner in September, setting off the dispute between Asia’s two largest economies.
During the interview with The Post, Abe spoke at length about China, laying out a theory of how the Chinese government, no longer able to promise economic equality, now needs new pillars for its legitimacy. One is economic growth. The other is patriotism, which he said often equates to anti-Japanese sentiment. Those factors, Abe said, push China to expand its maritime territory “by coercion or intimidation,” directed both against Japan, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea against its Southeast Asian neighbors.
Then, answering a question about the “maritime issue,” Abe responded, “What is important, first of all, is that their leaders as well as business leaders recognize how deeply ingrained this issue is.”
The Japanese government says that a transcript of the interview posted on The Post’s Web site is correct.
Nakamura reported from Washington.