James Gustave Speth

Consider a world in which environmentalists continue to lose on big issues such as climate change. Many observers see current trends leading to catastrophe, with environmental crises as major ingredients in a devil’s brew that includes such stresses as population pressure and energy supply problems; global income disparities and economic and political instabilities; terrorism, failed states, and nuclear proliferation. A world where environmentalists fail is one of food and water shortages; sea level rise; increasing heat waves, fires, floods, storms, droughts; deforestation, desertification, and biotic impoverishment; pollution and toxification; energy shortages; plus unpleasant surprises. The poor and powerless, even the average citizen, are unlikely to fare well in such a world.

In scenarios of the future, a continuation of “business as usual” can lead to a “fortress world” response to crisis, where the affluent live in protected enclaves in rich nations and in strongholds in poor nations. In the police state outside the fortress, the majority is mired in poverty and denied basic freedoms. Military and intelligence experts also have warned that climate disruption could lead to humanitarian emergencies, refugees, and rampant conflict. At a minimum one can conclude that unfolding trends threaten the liberal program. Historically, times of great stress, loss and instability lead societies to illiberal responses. Liberals must appreciate how serious environmental threats are, and that they threaten political and social systems, not just ecological ones. We all need to recognize that environmental threats are too serious to leave to environmentalists.