Joseph Nye

I have been interested in the study of power in international affairs for some time, and one of the biggest challenges in the field is to go beyond the simplistic identification of hard power resources (military and economic) with power defined in behavioral terms of affecting others to obtain the outcomes one wants. Obviously, when push comes to shove, hard power resources are important, but much power behavior occurs before that in the form of agenda setting, and preference setting through attraction and persuasion (which I call soft power).
In the near term, I worry most about terrorists getting hold of nuclear weapons. In the medium term, I worry about cyber disruption of our vulnerable societies. In the long terms I am concerned about climate change.
There are five phases of cyber threat in terms of their current prevalence. If we treat hactivism as primarily a nuisance, the next level is cyber crime which is very costly. Above that is cyber espionage which can expedite the transfer of intellectual property, including some that affects the defense industrial base. Above that is cyber terrorism in which terrorists use cyber for destruction. And finally there is cyber war which has effects similar to kinetic war and can be an adjunct to kinetic war. Right now, crime and espionage are doing us the most damage. Ten years in the future, I fear it may be terrorism. We have enough difficulty dealing with other states, but it is much harder to deter non-state actors.